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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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